Daily FX Trading Update: FOMC Minutes Show June Rate Hike Unlikely – May 21, 2015

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Daily FX Trading Update: FOMC Minutes Show June Rate Hike Unlikely - May 21, 2015

The US dollar barely had an FX trading reaction to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, as the report didn’t contain anything new from the actual interest rate statement. The report confirmed that a June interest rate hike is unlikely, although FOMC members didn’t junk the possibility entirely. They mentioned that they would proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis and that they won’t provide any forward guidance on tightening. For today, US existing home sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are lined up, with strong data likely to support the Greenback.

The euro paused from its recent FX trading slide yesterday, since there were no additional reports or updates to keep the selloff going. Market watchers are still waiting for any updates on the Greek debt talks and whether or not the country can dodge a default with their next set of payments due soon. For now, traders will have to take their cues from the release of German and French manufacturing and services PMI readings. Improvements are expected from France while Germany’s data could show small declines. Also due today are the minutes of the latest ECB meeting.

FX Trading News

The pound drew a bit of FX trading support from the recently released BOE meeting minutes, although the report showed that policymakers voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged. The UK retail sales are up for release today and this should show whether or not the slump in price levels is translating to a pickup in consumer spending. Analysts are counting on a 0.4% rebound from the previous 0.5% decline, with strong figures likely to push the pound higher.

The franc stalled in its latest FX trading slide, as the currency waited for more direction from the euro. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, indicating that further consolidation could be possible.

The yen gave up ground to the dollar and most of its FX trading counterparts, as risk appetite seemed to return to the financial markets yesterday. Japan’s preliminary GDP reading came in better than expected at 0.6% for Q1 2015, higher than the consensus of a 0.4% growth figure. However, the previous quarter’s reading was downgraded from 0.6% to 0.4%. Earlier today, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI printed a stronger than expected reading of 50.9, reflecting a return to industry expansion.

The comdolls brushed off their recent FX trading losses yesterday and managed to hold on to their current levels against the dollar and the yen. New Zealand inflation expectations showed an improvement from 1.8% to 1.9% but the dairy auction revealed another price drop of 2.2%. In Australia, the Westpac consumer sentiment index revealed a 6.4% pickup. Earlier today, the Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI showed a 49.1 reading, slightly weaker than the projected 49.4 figure. No other reports are lined up from the comdolls today.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.