Daily FX Trading Update: FOMC Minutes Disappoint – Aug 20, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: FOMC Minutes Disappoint - Aug 20, 2015

The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff after the release of the CPI and FOMC minutes since both seemed to show that a September rate hike might be pushed back further. Headline and core inflation showed feeble 0.1% gains, lower than the consensus of 0.2% increases in both reports. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes showed that policymakers are seeing improvements in the labor market but are concerned that inflation could still weaken. Nonetheless, one FOMC member was willing to hike rates in July but was fine with waiting for additional data anyway. For today, initial jobless claims, existing home sales, and Philly Fed index are due.

The euro managed to soar against its forex rivals when the German parliament voted in favor of the bailout plan for Greece. Recall that Germany was only willing to get on board if the IMF would also be supportive of the bailout, and the latter has required some form of debt relief. This suggests that Greece can be able to meet its upcoming loan obligation to the ECB this week and might be able to work towards achieving its budget targets sooner or later. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

The pound edged slightly higher in recent trading sessions, but there were no reports released from the UK yesterday. Traders are still probably keeping the currency supported due to the stronger than expected inflation reports the other day. For today, the UK retail sales report is due and a 0.4% rebound from the previous 0.2% decline is expected.

The franc regained ground to the dollar, thanks to positive updates from Greece and the less hawkish FOMC minutes. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday while today has the trade balance on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a smaller trade surplus of 2.59 billion CHF compared to the previous 3.51 billion CHF.

The yen advanced against most of its peers in recent trading, spurred mostly by the USDJPY selloff after the FOMC minutes were released. Data from Japan has been weaker than expected, with the trade balance reflecting a larger than expected fall in exports and the all industries activity index posting a meager 0.3% gain. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to hold on to their gains to the dollar but were mostly weaker against their other forex peers. Gold enjoyed a small rebound yesterday after the FOMC minutes were released, but the Aussie barely benefitted from this. Crude oil inventories showed an oversupply, driving prices down along with the Canadian dollar. Canadian wholesale sales data is due today and a 1.0% gain is eyed.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.