Daily FX Trading Update: EU Referendum Set to Start, Careful of Volatility!

The US dollar gave up more ground in recent trading sessions as risk appetite appeared to improve. Data from the US came in line with expectations as existing home sales were up 5.53 million. Fed head Yellen didn’t have much to add to her remarks from the previous day but she did clarify that the Fed has no emergency meeting scheduled after the EU referendum. US initial jobless claims and new home sales are due today.
The euro continued to advance against most of its peers, except for the British pound, as traders are likely lightening up on their short holdings ahead of the EU referendum. Data from the euro zone came in line with expectations yesterday as the consumer confidence index held steady at -7. Euro zone PMI readings are up for release today and small declines are eyed.
The pound is facing its much-anticipated Brexit vote starting in today’s London session, leading up to tomorrow’s Asian session before the official results will be announced. Expect additional volatility around these times as traders price in expectations, with a Brexit likely to mean sharp losses and a vote to remain likely to trigger a relief rally.
The franc chalked up small gains to the dollar but was weaker to the European currencies as traders might be bracing themselves for potential SNB intervention if the UK exits the EU. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today.
The yen lost further ground when risk-taking was in play, with some Brexit polls still showing a small lead in favor of UK voters who want to stay in the EU. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI showed a small improvement from 47.7 to 47.8, lower than the projected climb to 48.2.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian retail sales report came in stronger than expected, with the headline figure up 0.9% and the core figure up 1.3%. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today, which suggests that risk sentiment and the outcome of the Brexit vote would play a huge role in price action.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.