Daily FX Trading Update: Economic and Political Woes Weigh on EUR – Jan 6, 2015

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Daily FX Trading Update: Economic and Political Woes Weigh on EUR - Jan 6, 2015

The US dollar continued to stay supported against most of its major FX trading counterparts, although some of its gains were limited in recent trading. The lack of top-tier data from the US economy forced the currency to return some of its wins, particularly against the commodity currencies. For today, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due and it might show a dip from 59.3 to 58.2, which would reflect weaker industry expansion. A stronger than expected result, however, could allow the dollar to resume its climb.

The euro was still in a weak state yesterday, as data from the region came in weaker than expected. Germany posted a flat CPI reading instead of showing the estimated 0.1% uptick while Spain showed a weaker than expected increase in hiring. Apart from that, speculations of a Greek exit from the euro zone led to talks of contagion and debt troubles once more, putting more weight on the shared currency. Spanish and Italian services PMI are up for release today and weak data could worsen the euro’s slide.

FX Trading Forecasts

The pound edged lower against most of its FX trading counterparts when the UK construction PMI showed weaker than expected results. The figure fell from 59.4 to 57.6, worse than the estimated dip to 59.2 and indicative of a slower expansion in the construction industry. The services PMI is up for release today and might have a bigger impact on pound movement as the sector comprises a huge chunk of overall economic growth. The reading could improve from 58.6 to 58.9 and possibly give the pound a boost.

The franc was barely able to advance against the dollar as the SNB’s negative deposit rate announcement still weighed on the currency. Apart from that, continued weakness in the euro zone also opens up the possibility of more ECB easing, which might be then met with SNB intervention. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today.

The yen advanced against most of its FX trading rivals, as risk aversion stayed in place across the financial markets. There have been no reports released from Japan then and none are due today, leaving risk sentiment in play among the yen pairs.

The comdolls tried to recover against the dollar in recent FX trading sessions, even as oil prices fell to new lows. Earlier today, Australia showed a stronger than expected trade surplus, buoyed by an uptick in both exports and imports. Later on, the New Zealand dairy auction is set to take place and another decline in dairy prices might mean more losses for the Kiwi. As for the Loonie, the lack of data from Canada suggests that oil price action could continue to direct the currency.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.