Daily FX Trading Update: ECB Affirms Unanimity – Nov 7, 2014

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Daily FX Trading Update: ECB Affirms Unanimity - Nov 7, 2014

Dollar traders are gearing up for the release of the October NFP report in today’s US FX trading session, which could show a slightly slower pace of jobs gains. However, leading indicators of employment such as the ADP non-farm employment change and labor components of ISM surveys seem to be hinting at an upside surprise. In that case, the US dollar might be able to extend its rallies to its forex counterparts as traders continue to price in an early rate hike from the Fed next year. Initial jobless claims was stronger than expected yesterday, although preliminary labor costs and non-farm productivity data missed the marks.

The euro got badly beaten in yesterday’s London FX trading session, despite the lack of additional easing announcements from the ECB. Draghi reassured traders that the ECB is unanimous in its decision to shore up its balance sheet to 2012 levels, which might include pumping in 1 trillion EUR in the system. Apart from that, Draghi also stressed that the central bank is open to further easing in order to boost inflationary pressures. Only medium-tier reports, namely French and German industrial production, are due from the euro zone today and weak data might push the euro lower.

FX Trading Fundamentals

The pound was also in a weak spot in yesterday’s FX trading sessions, as the BOE seemed its usual dovish self. No interest rate changes or easing measures were announced, as traders were left waiting for the minutes of the policy meeting to be released next week before committing to their pound biases. As it is, the odds of a rate hike in early 2015 are looking slimmer as the BOE is grappling with a potential euro zone recession. Only the UK trade balance is up for release today and it might not be enough to give the pound a directional bias.

The franc took its cue from the euro and lost ground to most of its FX trading counterparts after the ECB announced its commitment to potential easing. Swiss SECO consumer climate also came in weaker than expected, as the index slipped from -1 to -11, lower than the estimated -4 figure. For today, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, and foreign currency reserves data are due and these might lead to more franc weakness if the actual results come up short.

The yen resumed its slide to the dollar but recovered to the euro in recent trading. Some Japanese officials are already cautioning on the potential repercussions of a very weak yen while others say that this could be positive for exports. No other reports are due from Japan today, with the yen looking at potential downside after the BOJ’s recent easing announcement.

The comdolls gave up further ground in recent FX trading, spurred by falling commodity prices and weak risk sentiment. It didn’t help that the recent Australian jobs report sparked more doubts on the survey methodology, as a strong headline reading still wasn’t enough to support the Aussie. In Canada, the Ivey PMI came in weaker than expected and set the tone for a weak employment release today. Chinese trade balance is up for release over the weekend this might lead to open price gaps next week.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.