Daily FX Trading Update: Crude Oil Topping Out?

The US dollar was mostly stronger in recent trading, except against the British pound. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the flash manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 to 52.9 while the Richmond manufacturing index dropped from +10 to -11. New home sales printed a higher than expected 654K figure for July but the previous reading was downgraded. US existing home sales and crude oil inventories are due today.
The euro slumped across the board when flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany and France mostly fell short of estimates. French flash manufacturing PMI fell from 48.6 to 48.5 but services PMI was up from 50.5 to 52.0. German flash manufacturing PMI fell from 53.8 to 53.6 while services PMI dropped from 54.4 to 53.3. Germany’s final GDP reading is due today and a downgrade from 0.4% to 0.3% is eyed.
The pound continued to climb against its peers, boosted by slightly stronger than expected data and no confirmation from the UK government on whether they’ll invoke Article 50 earlier than expected or not. The CBI industrial order expectations index dipped from -4 to -5, better than the projected fall to -9 but still indicative of a faster pace of contraction. BBA mortgage approvals data is due today and a decline from 40.1K to 38.5 is eyed.
The franc lost ground to the dollar and the pound but was able to take advantage of euro weakness. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so the franc could keep reacting to currency-specific events.
The yen advanced to the comdolls but weakened to the dollar and pound. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 49.6, better than the projected 49.5 figure. There are no major reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could be the primary driver of yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls resumed their slide as data came in below expectations. New Zealand reported a wider than expected trade deficit due to weaker imports and exports while Australia printed a 3.7% slump in quarterly construction work done versus the projected 1.9% drop. A draw of 0.5 million barrels in US crude oil inventories is expected, which might give the Loonie a boost.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.