Daily FX Trading Update: Crude Oil Prices Crush CAD

The US dollar was the big winner for the day, as it raked in gains across the board on risk aversion. Commodity prices have been on the decline while stock indices appear to have peaked since traders are taking profits ahead of this week’s FOMC statement. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday while today has the CB consumer confidence, new home sales, and Richmond manufacturing index on tap.
The euro was able to recover against most of its forex peers when the German Ifo business climate reading beat expectations. The index fell from 108.7 to 108.3 instead of dropping all the way down to the 107.7 consensus, suggesting that confidence hasn’t weakened that much after the EU referendum. Only the Belgian NBB business climate index is up for release today.
The pound was still in a weak spot against its forex rivals despite the stronger than expected CBI industrial order expectations figure. The reading fell from -2 to -4, higher than the projected -6 figure. BBA mortgage approvals data is due today.
The franc was able to advance against its higher-yielding peers when risk aversion gripped the financial markets, but it was still no match to dollar strength. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today, keeping market sentiment as the main driver of franc price action.
The yen was off to a weak start but soon reversed and rallied against its rivals when Economy Minister Ishihara suggested that BOJ easing could be moderate. He added that volatility in yen pairs has subsided, leading market watchers to think that the BOJ won’t try to weaken the currency this week. There are no reports lined up from Japan today so officials’ remarks could keep pushing yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie gave up a lot of ground when crude oil prices hit their lowest level since April. Speculations that stockpiles could show gains revived fears of an oversupply and weak demand. In New Zealand, the trade surplus narrowed to 127 million NZD from a downgraded 348 million NZD figure, although components showed gains in both imports and exports. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.