Daily FX Trading Update: Crude Oil Bounce Triggers Risk Rallies – Feb 25, 2016

Daily FX Trading Update: Crude Oil Bounce Triggers Risk Rallies - Feb 25, 2016
The US dollar was in a weak spot due to a pickup in risk appetite and weaker than expected US data. The flash services PMI fell from 53.2 to 49.8, its lowest reading in 28 months, versus the projected rise to 53.4. New home sales sank from 544K to 494K, worse than the estimated drop to 522K. Durable goods orders data and initial jobless claims are due today. Headline durable goods orders might show a 3.0% rebound while core durable goods orders could print a 0.2% uptick.
The euro struggled to regain ground, although it did manage to post some gains against its counterparts. There were no major reports out of the euro zone but Brexit fears in the region are weighing on the shared currency. Final CPI readings are due today and no revisions are expected.
The pound was still a big loser despite the risk rallies, as money flowed out of the UK on Brexit concerns. Data from the UK was also weaker than expected, with the CBI realized sales index falling from 16 to 10. The UK second GDP estimate is due today and no changes are expected from the 0.5% estimate.
The franc carried on with its climb as the preferred safe-haven in the European region, especially with EUR and GBP weakening. Also, the increase in the Swiss UBS consumption indicator from 1.61 to 1.66 spurred demand for the franc. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
The yen returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite returned to the markets. There were no reports out of Japan then and traders might also be booking profits ahead of the CPI releases on Friday.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was a big beneficiary of the rebound in risk-taking spurred by crude oil rallies. The US oil inventories report showed a larger buildup of 3.1 million barrels versus the projected 2 million increase but this was still lower compared to the API figure of 7.1 million barrels. In New Zealand, visitor arrivals rebounded by 2.9%. Australia’s private capital expenditure data is due next and a 3.1% decline is eyed.


To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.