Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese PMI Figures Turn Risk Back On

Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese PMI Figures Turn Risk Back On
The US dollar gave up ground on Friday since most economic figures came in weak. The personal spending and income data indicated a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.2% gain while the core PCE price index also logged in a 0.1% increase versus the estimated 0.2% rise. The Chicago PMI came in better than expected at 56.2 versus 49.5 but the UoM consumer sentiment index was lowered from 92.1 to 90.0. The US ISM manu PMI is due today and a drop from 50.2 to 50.0 is eyed.
The euro managed to recover slightly, thanks to a flat headline CPI estimate for the region. Analysts had been expecting to see another negative reading, which would’ve been enough to confirm additional ECB easing. Other medium-tier reports also beat expectations, with the jobless rate dropping from 10.9% to 10.8% and the core CPI landing at 1.0%, but the consumer spending data from Germany and France fell short. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the euro zone nations today.
The pound was able to hold on to its recent gains despite weaker than expected data from the UK. The GfK consumer confidence index dipped from 3 to 2 instead of improving to the projected 4 reading. The UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 51.5 to 51.3 is expected.
The franc made a quick rebound on Friday, even as the KOF economic barometer missed expectations. The reading came in at 99.8 versus the projected 100.1 figure while the previous reading was downgraded to 100.3. Swiss retail sales data is due today and a 0.2% rebound is eyed.
The yen recovered against its peers when the BOJ refrained from easing policy further. The central bank didn’t appear too concerned about the slump in the Japanese economy, with one policymaker still voting to taper asset purchases. Japanese household spending and housing starts both missed expectations but today’s flash manu PMI came in strong at 52.4 versus 52.1.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls appear to be off to a good start, even though reports from China released over the weekend weren’t so impressive. The official manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.8 instead of improving to 50.0 while the non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.4 to 53.1. However, the Caixin PMI climbed from 47.2 to 48.3, outpacing the consensus at 47.7. No reports are due from the comdoll economies today.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.