Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese PMI and Commodity Prices Disappoint – Jan 4, 2016



The US dollar is on relatively strong footing this week, especially since the Fed recently started its rate hike cycle and data from the US came in mostly stronger than expected. The ISM manufacturing PMI is up for release today and a rise from 48.6 to 49.1 is eyed. Stronger than expected data could mean more gains for the dollar, especially if the jobs component indicates a gain.

The euro is struggling to stay afloat ahead of event risks this week, as another round of bleak data could spur expectations of additional ECB easing. For today, the German preliminary CPI and Spanish manufacturing PMI is lined up while tomorrow has the euro zone flash CPI estimates.
The pound suffered a sharp selloff at the start of this week’s trading, with traders likely pricing in downbeat reports from the UK. The manufacturing PMI is due today and a small rise from 52.7 to 52.8 is expected. Net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data are also lined up.
The franc is coming off a very weak performance last week and has gapped lower against most of its peers at the start of Monday’s trading. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 49.7 to 50.2 is eyed, likely providing a bit of support for the Swiss currency.
Data from Japan came in mixed over the past couple of weeks but the yen is currently being weighed down by the BOJ’s surprise decision to expand its ETF purchase program. The national core CPI printed a flat reading while household spending and retail sales indicated sharper than expected declines.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were off to a weak start this week when China printed a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI from Caixin. The government figures released last week indicated small improvements but traders appear to be placing more credibility on the non-official figures. Australian commodity prices are due next and the New Zealand GDT auction is scheduled tomorrow.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.