The US dollar had a volatile trading day on Friday, as profit-taking took place at the end of the month. Economic data from the US came in mixed, with the employment cost index falling short of expectations with a mere 0.2% uptick instead of the projected 0.6% increase and the Chicago PMI beating forecasts. The UoM consumer sentiment index was downgraded from 93.3 to 93.1 instead of being upgraded to the projected 94.2 figure. For today, the US core PCE price index is due, along with personal spending and income reports. The ISM manufacturing PMI is also up for release and the employment sub-index could draw close attention.
The euro is still on a weak spot, thanks to news that the IMF is no longer on board with the third bailout for Greece. Negotiations are still ongoing, which means more uncertainty for the shared currency. Final manufacturing PMI readings from the euro zone’s top three economies are due today and upgrades could mean gains for the euro while downgrades could spur more losses.
The pound advanced against most of its rivals, particularly the commodity currencies, in recent trading. There have been no economic reports out of the UK last Friday but traders seem to be bracing themselves for this week’s set of reports. For today, the manufacturing PMI is due and a climb from 51.4 to 51.6 is expected.
The franc was still edging lower to the dollar on Friday, as there were no reports out of Switzerland. Today has the Swiss manufacturing PMI on tap and a climb from 50.0 to 50.6 might be seen. A weaker than expected reading could mean more franc weakness while strong figures could spur gains.
The yen regained ground to its forex rivals on Friday, as risk aversion remained in play. Data from Japan was mostly weaker than expected, as household spending fell by 2.0% while the inflation readings showed a standstill. Earlier today, the final manufacturing PMI for July was downgraded from 51.4 to 51.2. No other reports are lined up from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls resumed their selloff on Friday, thanks to weak data from Canada. The monthly GDP reading showed a 0.2% contraction for May, following the previous 0.1% contraction and signaling that the economy is in recession since the GDP figures have been negative in six out of the last seven months. Over the weekend, Chinese official PMI readings came in mostly in line with expectations, allowing the Aussie to regain a bit of ground.
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