Daily FX Trading Update: BOJ On Hold, UK Retail Sales Disappoint – Nov 20, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: BOJ On Hold, UK Retail Sales Disappoint - Nov 20, 2015
The US dollar continued to give up ground to its peers even though the FOMC minutes pretty much sealed the deal for a December liftoff. Profit-taking appears to be in play, as most of these rate hike expectations have been priced in for quite some time. Data from the US economy was actually better than expected, with initial jobless claims at 271K versus the 272K forecast and the Philly Fed index improving from -4.5 to +1.7 to indicate industry expansion.
The euro recovered against most of its forex rivals when the euro zone current account balance came in better than expected. The bounce was also partly spurred by reports that the French police was able to capture the perpetrators of last week’s terror attacks. German PPI and a speech by ECB Governor Draghi are lined up for today.
The pound showed some weakness in recent trading sessions when the UK retail sales data turned out to be a disappointment. The report showed a 0.6% decline worse than the estimated 0.4% drop while the previous report was downgraded to show a 1.7% increase. Public sector net borrowing data is up for release today.
The franc also bounced back against its rivals, following in the euro’s footsteps. The Swiss trade balance came in better than expected, showing a surplus of 4.16 billion CHF compared to the projected 3.18 billion CHF figure. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
The yen made a strong comeback in the forex charts when the BOJ refrained from boosting its current stimulus program. Analysts had expected some form of dovishness, especially since the Japanese economy is back in recession and the latest trade balance showed a surprise decline in exports. Still, the BOJ maintained that the Japanese economy continued to recover moderately and that it can achieve its inflation target of 2% by the second half of 2016. No reports are due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls made a strong rebound towards the end of the trading day when the US natural gas storage report showed falling supply levels. This follows the crude oil inventories report which also showed a decline in stockpiles, easing fears of a supply glut and putting upward pressure on prices. Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are up for release today.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.