Daily FX Trading Update: BOE Ready to Cut Rates

The US dollar regained a bit of ground in the latter part of the US session as data came in mostly stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims landed at 268K while the Chicago PMI showed a return to industry expansion. The reading jumped from 49.3 to 56.8, outpacing the estimate at 50.3. Up ahead, the ISM manufacturing PMI is due and no change from the 51.3 previous reading is eyed.
The euro managed to hold on to some of its gains when the flash CPI readings beat expectations. Headline CPI came in at 0.1% instead of staying flat while core CPI came in at 0.9% versus the 0.8% consensus. The German unemployment change showed a 6K reduction in joblessness, slightly higher than the projected 5K drop. For today,   final manufacturing PMI readings from the top euro zone economies are lined up.
The pound suffered a sharp drop when BOE Governor Carney confirmed that further easing is on the horizon. In his testimony, he mentioned that additional stimulus is likely in summer and that they’re considering other easing options. The UK current account balance showed a larger than expected deficit while the final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.4%. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 50.1 to 50.0 is expected.
The franc crawled slightly higher against its forex counterparts despite weaker than expected data from Switzerland. The KOF economic barometer reading rose from 101.8 to 102.4, lower than the projected 102.7 figure but still a again nonetheless. Swiss retail sales data is due today and an improvement from -1.9% to -1.7% is eyed.
The yen continued to give up ground to its forex peers as the threat of intervention weighed on the currency’s gains. Earlier today, Japanese data came in mostly in line with expectations, with the household spending report coming in stronger than expected. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.5% drop in price levels and the national core CPI showed a 0.4% decline. Final manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence data are still due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to hold on to most of their wins, buoyed by positive data and rising commodity prices. The Canadian economy expanded by 0.1% in April as expected while underlying inflation reports showed strong gains. Chinese manufacturing PMI readings are due today and strong data could continue to keep risk appetite up, lifting comdolls even higher.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.