Daily Forex Review: Risk Appetite Drags USD and JPY Down – July 2, 2014

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Daily Forex Review: Risk Appetite Drags USD and JPY Down - July 2, 2014

The US dollar had another weak run in the latest forex trading session, as risk appetite picked up at the start of the new trading month and quarter. Data from the US economy was also weaker than expected, as the ISM manufacturing PMI fell from 55.4 to 55.3 instead of improving to the estimated 55.6 figure. Construction spending and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism also missed expectations. US ADP non-farm employment change, factory orders, and crude oil inventories are up for release today. The bigger market-mover might be Fed Chairperson Yellen’s speech during the US trading session, as she might shed some light on the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

The euro took advantage of the run in risk appetite to gain ground against the yen and dollar. Against the Aussie and Kiwi though, the euro still caved. Data from the euro zone came in mixed, with the Spanish manufacturing PMI beating expectations and Italian manufacturing PMI coming up short. Euro zone jobless rate was better than expected at 11.6% versus the 11.7% consensus. The Spanish unemployment change report is lined up for today and might dictate direction for euro pairs.

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Forex Fundamental Analysis

The pound was able to extend its gains in recent trading, thanks to stronger than expected UK manufacturing PMI. The index jumped from 57.0 to 57.5 instead of falling to 56.7. Construction PMI and Nationwide HPI are due today, both of which are not slated to have a huge impact on price action. Keep your eyes peeled for another strong increase in house prices though, as the BOE is monitoring home inflation to gauge whether monetary policy needs to be tightened sooner rather than later.

The franc was able to advance against the dollar recently when the SVME PMI beat expectations and climb from 52.5 to 54.0 instead of just ticking higher to 52.6. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today so the franc might act more like a counter currency in the next few hours.

The yen was trampled upon in the risk rallies yesterday, as the weak Tankan survey results weighed on the currency. This revived talks of potential easing from the BOJ, as both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing components reflected weakness. There are no reports due from Japan today, suggesting that the yen could be driven by market sentiment once more.

The comdolls extended their gains in recent trading, particularly to the lower-yielding yen and U.S. dollar. China reported improvements in its official and HSBC manufacturing PMI, which explains the pickup in risk appetite, while the RBA had a less dovish than expected statement and boosted the Australian dollar. Earlier today though, the Australian trade balance came in weaker than expected and forced the Aussie to return some of its recent wins. No other reports are due from the commodity currencies’ economies today.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.