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Greenback turns weak on mixed economic data as the US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving. Weekly jobless claims increased more than expected along with other economic indicators including Chicago PMI, durable goods orders, manufacturing survey, all of which printed disappointing numbers.
ECB Vice President Constancio’s comments yesterday that the Central Bank was looking into starting QE during the first quarter of next year saw some weakness in the Euro but the single currency soon recovered on the backdrop of weak economic data from the US. ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak later today.
UK’s second estimate for the third quarter GDP remained unchanged at 0.7%. The news, although did not have much of an impact on the Sterling later saw the Cable rising off the lows of 1.5679 during yesterday’s trading session.
Oil prices declined, closing below $74 as OPEC members meet today. There were mixed comments from OPEC members about production cuts but none of which were substantiated. The day before, Russia’s Rosneft CEO failed to make any headway into the negotiations. Expect to see more volatility in oil prices today.
Fundamentals Recap – November 26, 2014
- Australia CAPEX q/q 0.2% vs. -1.7%
- German preliminary CPI m/m to remain unchanged at 0%
- OPEC meetings
- ECB President Draghi’s speech
- Gfk German consumer climate to be soft at 8.6
Fundamentals – November 27 2014
- German import prices m/m decline -0.3% as expected
- UK Q3 GDP unchanged at 0.7% on second estimate
- US core durable goods orders m/m decline -0.9%; durable goods 0.4% vs. -0.4%
- US core PCE price index m/m rises 0.2% above estimates of 0.1%
- Chicago PMI weaker than expected at 60.8 vs. 63.1 estimates
- Revised UoM consumer sentiment falls to 88.8 vs. 90.2 previously; inflation expectations unchanged at 2.8%
- US new home sales soft at 458k vs. 471k estimates; pending home sales m/m falls -1.1% vs. 0.9% expectations
EURUSD Daily Pivots
EURUSD rallied back to the main support/resistance level near 1.2527 handle which is also the price zone where the pair previously broke down from a rising trend line. If price fails to break above this level EURUSD could potentially be looking to a decline today with the first support level coming in at 1.2412 handle followed by a drop to the major support at 1.269
USDJPY Daily Pivots
USDJPY is weak heading into today’s European trading session with price respecting the down sloping price channel. With the main support at 117.572 broken, USDJPY could possibly be looking for more declines, potentially towards 116.782 handle.
GBPUSD Daily Pivots
GBPUSD managed to bounce back from the lows trading within the price channel that is sloping upwards. A test to the daily pivot level could see GBPUSD potentially look towards further gains to the main support/resistance level at 1.59 handle. Alternatively for a move below, GBPUSD will have to break down below the daily pivot followed by the lower support line of the price channel, possibly retesting back to the 1.5736 support level for resistance.
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