Guest post by Orbex
Yesterday was marked with choppy price action as the Greenback was broadly mixed across the board. In what seemed like a risk-off mode, Gold futures and commodity currencies such as the Aussie and the Kiwi managed to rally, while the Canadian continued to be under pressure due to the fall in oil prices which was trading below $49 a barrel.
Services PMI remained mixed but broadly weaker with Italy and UK missing estimates. US services PMI also declined to 533 while non-manufacturing ISM dropped to 56.2. Even the factory orders showed a marked decline falling for the fourth consecutive month.
Heading into today’s trading session; Eurozone CPI estimates will be closed watched for any clues of a dip to deflation on the headline while core CPI is expected to ease to 0.6%. Italian CPI is also expected to be released today. The US session will see the ADP jobs report for the month of December, expected to rise 227k, while other important data includes the US & Canada trade balance and FOMC meeting minutes.
Fundamentals Recap – January 6, 2015
- Australia trade balance -0.93bn vs. -1.59bn
- China HSBC services PMI 53.4
- Spain services PMI rises to 54.3 vs. 52.9
- Italy services PMI falls to 49.4 vs. 51.7
- Eurozone services PMI 51.6 vs. 51.9
- UK services PMI falls to 55.8 vs. 58.9
- New Zealand Global dairy price index rises to 3.6% from 2.4% previously
- US Final services PMI falls to 53.3 vs. 53.8
- US ISM non-manufacturing PMI falls to 56.2 vs. 58.2
- US Factory orders m/m decline -0.7% vs. -0.3%
Fundamentals – January 7, 2015
- Australia AIG services index 47.5 vs. 43.8 previously
- New Zealand ANZ commodity prices -4.4% vs. -1.6% previously
- UK BRC shop price index y/y -1.7% vs. -1.9% previously
- German retail sales m/m to rise 0.2%
- Eurozone CPI flash estimates y/y to be flat at 0%; Core CPI to ease to 0.6%
- Eurozone unemployment rate to be steady at 11.5%
- Italy Preliminary CPI m/m to fall -0.2%
- US ADP nonfarm payroll change to rise 227k
- Canada trade balance expected at -0.2bn
- US trade balance expected at -42.3bn
- Canada Ivey PMI to decline to 52.3
- FOMC meeting minutes
EURUSD Daily Pivots
EURUSD declined yesterday back to the 9-year low at 1.188 region with the potential to eye the next support level at 1.1713. However with the support level being broken at 1.206 – 1.209 levels, we do not rule out a potential rally back to this support to be established as resistance, which could then pave way for more declines. Alternatively, a sharp decline down to 1.17 could set the stage for a possible short squeeze in the Euro.
USDJPY Daily Pivots
USDJPY closed lower yesterday but reversed its gains around 118.1 level. Price action seems to be trading near the falling trend line, and at a support level region of 118.974 – 118.877. If this support holds, USDJPY could possibly see a rally targeting 119.661, which happens to be close to the break out level of the daily charts trend line. A close higher would however indicate a continuation to the rally, while a retest of that level and a decline could see USDJPY look back to targeting 118 and eventually 117 price points.
GBPUSD Daily Pivots
The Cable continues to decline with no respite from this extended sell off. However, the broken support level near 1.5486 level is something to keep an eye on. A possible retracement to this level or to the region of 1.5439 – 1.533 could possible see the broken support level being tested for resistance, which should then pave way for an extended decline towards multi-year lows of 1.4922.
Guest post by Orbex