Daily Forex Market Update: Risk Sentiment Continues to Improve – Oct 21, 2014

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Daily Forex Market Update: Risk Sentiment Continues to Improve - Oct 21, 2014

The US dollar lost ground to majority of its forex market counterparts as risk appetite appeared to improve at the start of the week. There have been no major reports released from the US, although a couple of FOMC members gave testimonies. There are still no major reports due from the US today, with only the medium-tier existing home sales data on tap. The report could show an increase from 5.05 million to 5.11 million, which might be enough to keep the dollar supported. Risk sentiment could continue to play a major role in forex price action for the time being.

The euro edged slightly higher in recent forex market trading, despite weak data from the euro zone. German PPI stayed flat instead of posting the estimated 0.1% gain in producer prices while the euro zone current account balance showed a smaller than expected 18.9 billion EUR surplus versus the projected 21.3 billion EUR surplus. For today, there are no major reports due from the euro zone, leaving euro pairs sensitive to risk appetite.

Forex Market Fundamentals

The pound was able to keep up its recent forex market gains, even though there were no major reports released from the UK economy. The Rightmove HPI marked a 2.6% gain in house prices, stronger than the previous 0.9% uptick. UK public sector net borrowing data is up for release and the figure is slated to dip from 10.9 billion GBP to 9.3 billion GBP, which might be positive for the pound.

The franc regained ground to the dollar, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. Swiss trade balance is set for release today and a wider surplus is expected. The report could show a trade surplus of 2.43 billion CHF, up from the previous 1.33 billion CHF. Stronger than expected data could keep the franc afloat against its forex counterparts.

The yen gave back some of its recent gains as risk appetite continued to improve in the forex market recently. There have been no reports released from Japan at the start of the week and there are none lined up for today, suggesting that yen pairs could continue to take their cue from risk sentiment.

The comdolls took advantage of the pickup in risk-taking and advanced to the dollar and the yen in recent forex market trading. Data from Canada came in line with expectations, as wholesale sales marked a 0.2% rebound from the previous 0.2% decline. In New Zealand, visitor arrivals marked a 0.9% increase after declining by 3.0% in the previous month. RBA monetary policy minutes are up for release today, along with Chinese GDP for Q3, which might be big movers for the Australian dollar and overall risk sentiment. Chinese GDP is slated to drop from 7.5% to 7.2%, which could confirm that the world’s second largest economy is slowing down. Weaker than expected data could lead to a return in risk aversion.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.