Czech Koruna Heads to Historic Depreciation against US Dollar

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Czech Koruna (CZK) continued to fall against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, increasing USD/CZK to 19.95 as the pair is headed towards the historic highs around the 21.00 handle.

Technical Analysis

USD/CZK is being traded near 19.93 at 10:00 GMT in London. Resistance can be seen around 19.98 which is the upper trendline of the daily triangle as demonstrated in the following chart. A break and daily closing above the 20.00 handle could push the pair into stronger bullish momentum, eyeing initially 20.45 and then the historic highs around the 21.00 handle.

On the downside, the pair is expected to find support near 19.90, the 38.2% fib level, ahead of 19.88 that is the channel support. A daily closing below the lower trendline will validate further dips below the 19.80 handle.

Retail Sales

On Friday, April 04, Czech Statistical Office is scheduled to release the retail sales report for the month of February. According to median projection of different economists, the retail sales increased by 4.73% in February compared with 6.4% in the same duration of the year before. Conversely, the sales declined by 0.06% in February as compared to 1.8% increase in the month before, the forecast added. Better than expected actual outcome will be seen as bearish for USD/CZK and vice versa.

Industrial Production

On Monday, April 07, Czech Statistical Office is due to release the industrial production report. According to forecast, the industrial production increased to 6.69% in February as compared to 5.5% in the same month of the year before. On Month over Month basis the production increased to 0.72% in February as compared to 0.5% decline in the month before, the forecast added.

Trade Balance

Czech trade balance report is also scheduled for release on April 07. According to median projection of different economists, the trade surplus declined to CZK 29.9 billion in February as compared to CZK 44.6 billion in the month before, better than expected actual outcome will be seen as bearish for USD/CZK and vice versa.

US Nonfarm Payrolls

On Friday (tomorrow) the Labor Department of the US will release the nonfarm payrolls for the previous month. Analysts believe that the nonfarm payrolls rose to 200K in March as compared to 175K in the month before, better than expected actual outcome will be bullish for USD/CZK and vice versa. Similarly, the same day unemployment rate figure is also due for release.  According to forecast, the rate of unemployment in the US declined to 6.6% last month as compared to 6.7% in the month before.

Conclusion

USD/CZK is directionless as for as the price is hovering within the daily triangle, however, an upside breakout could push the pair intro long term bullish momentum. 

To contact the writer of this story: Usman Ahmed at usman@forexminute.com