Currency Forecast, September 30th 2013

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Currency Forecast, September 30th 2013
Currency Forecast, September 30th 2013

Currency Forecast, September 30th 2013

EURUSD and EURJPY both moved a bit lower, but there is still plenty of room to the downside and the story about Italy could be the trigger. It is more than likely that the government in Italy will quit and we see new elections – and there is a big chance that Berlusconi’s party will win this election then. This would be definitely EUR negative of course.

The other thing to watch is still the daily release of economy data out of the USA, which could give some clue about the timing of the FED, when it will decrease its easing police and decrease the amount of its bond buying program.

Another thing to watch is also the discussion in the USA about the debts, as it gets crucial again with the debt-ceiling and the republicans only would agree, if Obama would cut some costs regarding the health care. I am pretty sure they will find an agreement and everything will be how it currently is, but there is still this tiny chance that one time they will not find an agreement, which would then of course shake the markets around.

Regarding the positions, EURJPY was already a lot lower overnight, but I think this move again above 132,00 is only short lived and it will trade below 132,00 again very soon. Once it trades below 131,00, I will set a stop profit order at 131,50 , as I would expect a lot of stops below the 131,00 level.

EURUSD has, as mentioned, a lot of room to the downside and unless we see it trading above 1,3600, I like to keep the position.

Good luck,

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

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Current spot: EURUSD 1,3495 , USDCHF 0,9060 , EURCHF 1,2230 , USDJPY 97,90 , EURJPY 132,10 , EURHUF 298,75 , USDCAD 1,0315 , GOLD 1.341,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 3 @ 132,26
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +640 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 3 @ 1,2288
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 1 @ 1,2265
P/L (ytd): +390 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +500 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +238.000 USD

To contact the reporter of this story: Marco Roemer at marco@forexminute.com