Currency Forecast, September 23rd 2013

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Currency Forecast, September 23rd 2013
Currency Forecast, September 23rd 2013

Currency Forecast, September 23rd 2013

The election in Germany is over but we could still see some fights, as the FDP could not reach the 5% hurdle and now the CSU/CDU with Merkel needs to find a partner to form a coalition. This will be tough, as the SPD and also the Green party said yesterday that they would not like to form a coalition with Merkel. Because of this, we should see a decline of the EURUSD and EURJPY, which will also be supported by some profit takers.

Overall, the start of this week should be quiet and currency pairs should stay within a range of at least 100 pips.

I took profit on the EURCHF position, which was a bit of a hedge to the long USDCHF position. Unfortunately, Bernanke came out with some unexpected news last week, which led to a weaker USD, though I still think on the long-term view, we will see a stronger USD in general. That’s why I still like to keep the EURUSD and USDCHF position. If I would not have this strong view of the USD, I would close the position, but I have this strong view here.

Regarding the USDJPY, where we are in the middle of the range – I will wait a bit (maybe a move towards 97,80 or a move above 100,00) – before I will open a position there again.

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3510 , USDCHF 0,9125 , EURCHF 1,2325 , USDJPY 98,90 , EURJPY 133,70 , EURHUF 298,40 , USDCAD 1,0290 , GOLD 1.327,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 3 @ 132,26
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +640 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 1,2325
P/L (ytd): +390 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +500 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +238.000 USD

To contact the reporter of this story: Marco Roemer at marco@forexminute.com