Currency Forecast, September 18th 2013

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The market is still waiting for the rate decision in the USA and for the press conference afterwards, if there will be some new information about an ending of the easing policy.

Only the EURHUF moved a bit lower which is nice and I would start closing the short EURHUF position, should we trade below 295,00. As the position is already open for more than 3 weeks, it also earned because of the higher interest rate in Hungary.

My expectations about the rate decision and especially about the press conference: They will not let us know about an exact end of the easing policy of course, but they will again let us know that they will start ending it, should the unemployment rate become better. As the gold price moved was already lower overnight (close to the 1300,00 level), it seems to me that we will see a USD boost later on in the day, which will send the EURUSD lower and USDJPY higher. As I am already positioned quite big, I will just keep the position for now, but I will take profit on the Gold position here (1303,00).

Good luck,

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

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Current spot: EURUSD 1,3360 , USDCHF 0,9260 , EURCHF 1,2370 , USDJPY 99,20 , EURJPY 132,50 , EURHUF 297,50 , USDCAD 1,0300 , GOLD 1.302,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 3 @ 132,26
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +640 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 2 @ 1,2375
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +290 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +500 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 3k ounces @ 1343,00
Target: 1300,00
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 3k ounces @ 1303,00
P/L (ytd): +238.000 USD

To contact the reporter of this story: Marco Roemer at marco@forexminute.com