Currency forecast, June 25th

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Currency forecast, June 25th
Currency forecast, June 25th

Another day of falling stocks and where the good old phrase makes sense: Never catch a falling knife. It seems that it is not the end of that correction in the stock market.
We have bad numbers out of China and traders are worried about a possible liquidity crisis there too.
We have the FED in the USA, which is likely to end its easing policy.
And we have Greece and Cyprus which could be also a problem in the near future again.
All in all not the best outlook for the markets and I would swim with the market for now.

Unfortunately, the USDJPY did not reach the 99,00 level, so I missed the entry level. I see the USDJPY as one of the most volatile currency pairs in the near future, as it will be a fight between the falling stock market and the Bank of Japan plus some statements from the FED regarding its easing policy.

I like to play the market with a new currency pair – USDCAD. The reason is, you don’t have that big a risk, as usually it doesn’t have the big volatility like the USDJPY or the EURUSD has and it is on a high level. The CAD usually looks how the US is doing and if the US is doing well, then the CAD strengthens. As the US is thinking about an end of the easing policy and the economy data isn’t bad either, the CAD should strengthen again soon. I like to sell here @ 1,0475 with a stop @ 1,0610.

The only other position for now is the EURHUF position, where I like to wait for lower levels to move the stop lower again to a stop profit loss.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,3090
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl): Sell 1 @ 99,00
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 0,9180
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 289,00
Stop lvl: 305,50
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 297,00
P/L (ytd): +580 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 1,0475
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,0475
P/L (ytd):

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.