Currency forecast, June 21st

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Currency forecast, June 26th
Currency forecast, June 26th

Yesterday was not the best day for stocks at all. With the DAX minus 3,3% and the DOW JONES minus 2,3 % the result of Bernanke’s speech was quite impressive. Though we will still see low interest rates for the next time, the bond buying program could end soon (by the end of 2013 or middle of 2014). As stocks rallied much more than the fundamental data of the companies are worth it, there is in my opinion room for a move back to 13.500 – 14.000 in the DOW JONES and 7.000 in the DAX.

How will currencies react? We saw overnight sellers of the USDJPY in a reaction of the stock market, but buyers out of Asia moved it back to 98,00. There you see the policy about a weak Yen which Japan likes to have. I still like the idea to go short @ 99,00 – because if the stock market continues to weaken, it will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to hold the USDJPY close to the 100,00 level. A move back to 95,00 and lower could be possible soon.

EURHUF reached again the level of 300,00 and held well there. I like to be short again, to earn from the higher interest rate and to wait until we move again to the 290,00 level.

If you like to play a tiny range, EURCHF is still the one to trade. 1,2270-1,2330 is the range for now, where you should be in save heaven.

What to expect for today: I think we will see first buyers again in the stock market and it should go up, but closer to the end of the day, I expect that sellers will appear again and I would guess that the stock markets in Europe and USA will close with a small loss of the day.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

Just for info: The P/L (because there were some questions how this gets calculated), is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – so to say it the easy way – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The possible position could go up to 3, if the system has a strong view (that is the maximum size by now)

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 1 @ 1,3220
Target: 1,3350
Stop lvl: 1,3090
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 1,3220
P/L (ytd): +20 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl): Sell 1 @ 99,00
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 0,9180
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 289,00
Stop lvl: 305,50
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 297,00
P/L (ytd): +580 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):