Currency forecast, June 20th

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Currency forecast, June 25th
Currency forecast, June 25th

That move in the USDJPY yesterday was easy to see and know, but surprised me a bit with the speed and that it went a bit further than I thought. As rule number one in the financial markets is “never catch a falling knife” – I would like to wait for a better level to get involved again in that currency pair and I will have a look how quick we may test the 100,00 level or not. Above 99,00 I like to go short smalls only, as I would expect first profit takers there.

I closed the EURUSD position and changed it now to a small long position (@ 1,3220). I think the last move should have been only a move of USDJPY and out of EURJPY and not that much out of EURUSD. That is why I expect profit takers there too and a EURUSD above 1,3250 very soon.

EURHUF position got stopped, but still with a nice profit though and I wait now again for the entry level of 299,90 , which we have seen, but it was in a time, where I have not written this forecast yet and I would all of you give the same chance to make money with my forecasts. Let’s see if we see the level of 300,00 again in the next 24 hours.

Regarding news: The FED statements yesterday were difficult to use for trading the market. They kept everything unchanged, but stocks didn’t like it though USDJPY made a big move higher. Usually USDJPY moves the same way the stocks do, so that is a bit complicated. This time it was more a move of interest rates, as the markets took the news more like a possible nearer rate hike than they thought. That moved the USDJPY higher, as it could become a nice carry trade again in the future, plus you have the BOJ behind you too.

For the bigger market moves we will have to wait after summer with the German elections etc., but there are still lot of opportunities to make money even in the summer months, like the trading in the last 48 hours, which worked out really really well.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

Just for info: The P/L (because there were some questions how this gets calculated), is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – so to say it the easy way – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The possible position could go up to 3, if the system has a strong view (that is the maximum size by now)

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 1 @ 1,3220
Target: 1,3350
Stop lvl: 1,3090
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 1,3220
P/L (ytd): +20 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl): Sell 1 @ 99,00
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 96,50
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 0,9180
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl): Sell 2 @ 299,90
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 297,00
P/L (ytd): +580 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):