Currency forecast, June 19th

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A much stronger ZEW Index out of Germany surprised the market a bit and stocks rallied again. USDJPY shows its way in the right direction. I expect that USDJPY pair to trade above 96,00 today, as there is still a gap between the USDJPY exchange rate and how stocks moved in the last two days. Again I would expect to see that move out of EURJPY (at least more than out of EURUSD). Around 96,50 should we see, I would take profit of the long USDJPY position, as I would expect there some profit takers, also in the stock market.

The story about the TV-station in Greece is solved for now and also the protests in Turkey are not that big news anymore, so we will need to focus on other things. The only story which is still on everyone’s mind is the one about the FED, if they are stopping their easing policy or not – and if yes, when? Personally, I can’t imagine that they would stop their program in this summer – earliest I would say could be at the end of the year and only just talking about (but that’s only my opinion).

I still would prefer to play the small daily range in EURCHF (like 1,2280-1,2330) – that’s easy money without a big risk. For the trading model, it would be a too small range, as it is constructed for bigger moves of course, but that does not mean that I don’t trade small ranges too.

EURUSD held well so far a bit above the 1,3400 level and that could be the turnaround level, as we only need one bad news again out of Europe and we are again around 1,3300. After yesterday’s Zew Index the market is very EUR bullish, which could change very quickly again.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

Just for yor info: The P/L (because there were some questions how this gets calculated), is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – so to say it the easy way – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The possible position could go up to 3, if the system has a strong view (that is the maximum size by now)

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 1 @ 1,3340
Target: 1,3200
Stop lvl: 1,3430
Last trade: S 1 @ 1,3340
P/L (ytd): -100 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 2 @ 94,50
Target: 96,50
Stop lvl: 93,70
Last trade:S 2 @ 95,90
P/L (ytd): +380 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 0,9180
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 287,00
Stop lvl: 297,00
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 299,90
P/L (ytd):

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.