Currency forecast, June 18th

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Currency forecast, June 25th
Currency forecast, June 25th

Nothing important happened yesterday, the only thing to mention would be that the Greek government re-opened the TV-station under the pressure of the other parties. Stocks liked that step and rose in the New York session.

For me it looks more and more the beginning of the summer, where markets are usually not really volatile, as most traders are on vacation. We would need to get some big news or real unexpected economic data from Europe or the USA.

Currently you do the best to play small ranges in EURUSD, EURCHF and if you are still long USDJPY. USDJPY has not moved that much, though stocks had a nice day yesterday, so I expect USDJPY to move soon towards 96,00. That move should happen through EURJPY, as EURJPY is a stocks-driven currency pair too.

Only thing to watch for now are any news regarding the FED, if there is a statement about their easing policy, as traders are still worried about a possible ending of that easing policy. Of course the FED will not say, on this and that day we will end the program, but something like – “in the near future” would shake the market of course. Same if they would say “There is no need to change our policy” – which would shake the market too – of course in the other direction. As soon as there is any news about that, I will comment on them.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

Just for your info: The P/L (because there were some questions how this gets calculated), is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – so to say it the easy way – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The possible position could go up to 3, if the system has a strong view (that is the maximum size by now)

EURUSD
(Entry lvl): Sell 1 here (1,3340)
Current position: short 1 @ 1,3340
Target: 1,3200
Stop lvl: 1,3430
Last trade: S 1 @ 1,3340
P/L (ytd): -100 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl): Buy 2 here (94,50)
Current position: long 2 @ 94,50
Target: 96,50
Stop lvl: 93,70
Last trade:S 2 @ 95,90
P/L (ytd): +380 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 0,9180
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 287,00
Stop lvl: 297,00
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 299,90
P/L (ytd):

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.