Currency forecast, June 17th

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Currency forecast, June 26th
Currency forecast, June 26th

A new week and a new opportunity to make some money. What’s the outlook for this week? Let’s start with events or happenings which have to follow and have in mind.

I start with the situation in Turkey. There is still the possibility that those protests could get more and more. A 14 year old boy got heavily injured by a police man this weekend and the chance is like 50/50 if he will survive or not. Should this boy die, I am not sure how the people will react. But that only concerns Turkey and of course only if you trade TRY.

What we need to focus more is Greece again. Samaras closed the big TV-station what people are not really happy about. New protests again show that they are thinking about that idea from Samaras. As the other government parties were not really involved in that, there seems the possibility that they will not agree, which could lead to new elections quite soon. And we all know is new elections could possibly end – with a victory of the opposition. And that would mean that the help from the IMF and the European Union could be stopped. All in all, we would have the next big crisis again. Greek parliament would think maybe about to leave the Union, Germany and the rest of the EU would need to discuss how they shall react, etc.It is not happening for now, but the first steps were already done by closing the TV-station, so we need to keep that story in mind of course.

People will wait at the beginning of the week for more detailed news to have bigger positions. I would prefer to be short EURUSD and long USDJPY for now, though small positions only, as market could turn around quickly with only one big news out regarding Greece.
I also put the stop in EURHUF lower and changed it to a stop profit. So we still earn from the higher interest rate in Hungary, plus should EURHUF move higher again, we still would have a nice profit out of the position.

Current trades, positions and levels:

Just for info: The P/L (because there were some questions how this gets calculated), is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – so to say it the easy way – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The possible position could go up to 3, if the system has a strong view (that is the maximum size by now)

EURUSD
(Entry lvl): Sell 1 here (1,3340)
Current position: short 1 @ 1,3340
Target: 1,3200
Stop lvl: 1,3430
Last trade: S 1 @ 1,3340
P/L (ytd): -100 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl): Buy 2 here (94,50)
Current position: long 2 @ 94,50
Target: 96,50
Stop lvl: 93,70
Last trade:S 2 @ 95,90
P/L (ytd): +380 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:S 2 @ 0,9180
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 287,00
Stop lvl: 297,00
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 299,90
P/L (ytd):

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.