Currency forecast, June 12th

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Currency forecast, June 25th
Currency forecast, June 25th

Well, what is going on in the fx-market? The main market position in currently the USDJPY, as there are bigger short USDJPY positions in the market. I would expect to take them out in the next 48 hours, which is why my trading model has gone long on the USDJPY at the current level. Once the first stops get triggered, it could be a bigger move, even up to 99,00.

EURUSD surprised me a bit, as it moved higher than expected, though there is still the big resistance around 1,3350, where my trading model also stops its tiny short position.

EURHUF worked out well so far and a tiny bit above 300,00 the market turned around. I will keep the position open and should we see lower spot in the next 48 hours, I will also move the stop lower and change it to a stop profit. Earning because of the higher interest in Hungary is not that bad at all I would say.

With the EURUSD a bit against my trading model, it is also the USDCHF of course, but as I believe on the story with the EURCHF, the resistance level could hold easily and if we trigger the USDJPY stops soon, it will be also a run on USD short stops in general.

I added the currency pair USDCAD to my trading model, but there is no signal yet, so we have to wait a bit longer for an entry level to open a position.

All in all, expect a stop loss run on the USD in the next 48 hours, as the market in general is too short the USD (mainly from USDJPY)

Just for info: The P/L (because there were some questions how this gets calculated), is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – so to say it the easy way – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The possible position could go up to 3, if the system has a strong view (that is the maximum size by now)

Current trades, positions and levels:

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: short 1 @ 1,3250
Target: 1,3100
Stop lvl: 1,3350
Last trade: S 1 @ 1,3250
P/L (ytd):

USDJPY
Buy 2 (Entry lvl): here (97,00)
Current position: long 2 @ 97,00
Target: 99,00
Stop lvl: 95,90
Last trade:B 2 @ 97,50 and B 2 @ 97,00
P/L (ytd): +500 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 2 @ 0,9300
Target:0,9600
Stop lvl:0,9180
Last trade:B 2 @ 0,9300
P/L (ytd):

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 287,00
Stop lvl: 304,00
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 299,90
P/L (ytd):

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):