Currency forecast, July 9th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 9th 2013
Currency forecast, July 9th 2013

Monday was another day with a risk on move. Especially EURCHF moved higher, which surprised me a bit to be honest. After the decision in Croatia and the last statements from Draghi I would have expected EURCHF to move lower.

I still think that the crisis is not over yet and it is just a matter of time (days) until we see the next move lower in stocks, USDJPY and EURCHF. The only problem for now is that many traders are on vacation so the liquidity is thin and one big market player can move the whole market in his direction if he likes to.

What about the countries in the European Union? Nothing has changed there, there are still the discussions about Greece when and if they should get the whole amount of the next tranche of money. It is pretty quiet about Spain and Portugal at the moment, but that could change so quick – a lot of protesters are on the street every day in those countries, but no one likes to talk about it currently. The unemployment rate isn’t getting better and also Cyprus is off the table for now, even they are in bigger trouble than any other country in the European Union, as they have really no money at all anymore.

What we must not forget is also China. A few days ago everyone was talking about China showing bad economic numbers and there could be slowdown in growth etc. What happened there? It is still the same there, but no one cares, as the market only wants to push the stock market higher for some reason. This could end in a big move the other way around very soon.

I don’t want to say that some people and companies like to push stocks higher because they get then a higher bonus because of a specific revaluation, but when I look at the economy data, the unemployment rates, the problems of some countries in the European Union, it doesn’t go one by one with the stock market. And I know that currently we have low interest rates everywhere, but that can’t be the only reason for the current situation.

I still prefer to wait for the next move lower and/or the next panic in the market. To be short USDJPY, short EURCHF and probably short EURJPY and long Gold is the way to play that scenario.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,2885 , USDCHF 0,9655 , EURCHF 1,2440 , USDJPY 101,10 EURJPY 130,29 , EURHUF 294,10 , USDCAD 1,0535 , GOLD 1.255,15

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 99,65 (1@ 99,00 and 1@ 99,70 and 1 @ 100,25)
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 100,25
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 1,2440 (stop)
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD