Currency forecast, July 5th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 5th 2013
Currency forecast, July 5th 2013

raghi from the ECB said yesterday that we will see a low interest rate in Europe for a longer time and it could eventually sink again too. That statement pushed stocks higher around the world and the EUR weakened against the world-currencies. Also rumors about Greece, Portugal and again Cyprus were a bit responsible for that move. There was an article in a German newspaper that the ECB told Cyprus they could stop giving them money if Cyprus would not stop try to change things on the aid-plan.

Today could be the next day with big moves, as we are waiting for the NFP of the USA. I guess a lot of people and of course traders are expecting a good number, so the risk for a worse number is much bigger. We need to keep that in mind. So a good number would maybe push USDJPY a bit higher towards 101,00 or 101,50 but with a bad number we could see the USDJPY around 98,00 or even lower too. I like to stay short USDJPY as the downside risk is much bigger and I will only stop the position at 101,50 and increase it a bit. In my opinion, too many people are long on the USD now.

Another great aspect is about Croatia (not many people have heard about that story yet). As in a few other countries, Croatia is a country where people have a lot of CHF-loans. Now the government and the judges decided that it was caused by the banks (mainly Austrian banks) and they need to take the loss. So we could see very soon that Croatia will set a fixed exchange-rate for HRKCHF, where people can convert their CHF-loan to a HRK-loan without that big loss. That’s why I expect that Croatia and also Austrian banks will have to buy billions of CHF in the next days/weeks. The question is, with which currency to play that best. I would split it and would go short on the EURCHF and HRKCHF by 50/50.

Good ck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,2885 , USDCHF 0,9590 , EURCHF 1,2355 , USDJPY 100,25 , EURJPY 129,20 , EURHUF 294,30 , USDCAD 1,0530 , GOLD 1.242,15

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 99,65 (1@ 99,00 and 1@ 99,70 and 1 @ 100,25)
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 100,25
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,2355
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,2430
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 1,2355
P/L (ytd): +180 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD