Currency forecast, July 4th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 4th 2013
Currency forecast, July 4th 2013

Big news out of Egypt, as Morsi seems not to be the president anymore. That’s the reason why the price for crude oil rose to a high of $102,00 , which we have seen the last time in May 2012.

USDJPY could show a quite big move in the next 48 hours, as the YEN is seen as a safe haven by investors and also the NFP-number could be an important part of that move.

Let’s also focus on Europe. Portugal seems to be in trouble, as more and more people of the government resign. New elections would lead to worries about the future of Portugal in the European Union. Bonds of Portugal rose again to dangerous levels. Is the crisis in Europe back? Well, I am not that sure about it, but I would say we see the first signs and we all need to remember that we still have a lot of problems in the European Union, with Greece and Spain where the unemployment rate is close to 30% for example. Cyprus needs more and more money, and now maybe with Croatia the next small country which needs money. And we must not forget that France and Italy could start having problems too.

What is the best to trade with that outlook? To buy CHF is not the best idea I think, even the market sees CHF as a safe haven. The SNB would protect the 1,2000 level anyway. So the best way is to buy the YEN, maybe to buy again Gold and to buy the USD against currencies like EUR and AUD.

Though of course a surprise in the NFP-number could change everything immediately.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,2990 , USDCHF 0,9495 , EURCHF 1,2330 , USDJPY 99,70 , EURJPY 129,55 , EURHUF 294,45 , USDCAD 1,0520 , GOLD 1.249,95

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 99,35 (1@ 99,00 and 1@ 99,70)
Target:
Stop lvl: 100,50
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 99,70
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 1,2360
P/L (ytd): +180 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 295,00
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,0505
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2000 onces @ 1245,00
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD