Currency forecast, July 3rd 2013

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Currency forecast, July 3rd 2013
Currency forecast, July 3rd 2013

Some political news out of Europe moved the markets a bit on Tuesday.

What was that news?

First of all the Portuguese finance minister resigned and that could lead in the worst case to new elections, which would be bad news for the Euro, as uncertainty would appear. I will watch that carefully as with the current low liquidity in the market (most traders are on vacation), it could create a big move in the stock market but also in the forex market.

There was also a press release about Angela Merkel (the German chancellor) who said that Greece will not receive the full bailout amount. Do we see the next big discussions about the future of Greece? Also this story has to be watched carefully.

Turmoil in Egypt and Syria moved the oil price to a new high for this year, even the stronger USD could not stop that move. By the way the stronger USD was a result as traders think again that the FED will end the policy of the massive liquidity rather sooner than later.

About the different currency pairs:

I closed the EURHUF position, as we reached the stop level of 295,00 – all in all it is a nice profit.

We were close at the USDJPY stop but the position is still alive and we could see a sharp fall there with any news from the FED that they will keep buying bonds.

Also the USDCAD position is still alive and we would also see the same action there as with USDJPY.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 99,35 (1@ 99,00 and 1@ 99,70)
Target:
Stop lvl: 100,50
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 99,70
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 1,2360
P/L (ytd): +180 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 295,00
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,0505
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2000 onces @ 1245,00
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD