Currency forecast, July 2nd 2013

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Currency forecast, July 2nd
Currency forecast, July 2nd

No big news out, no important economic data out, so all in all a very quiet market. The trading for now is, if there is no news its good news, so every day without any big news is a bit of a risk-on day.

As we are at the beginning of the summer, it will be more and more a playing the range game. I would expect to see the next bigger moves by the end of August again unless there are any big news out of Europe or the USA.

Regarding the positions: As I think the next small move will be the other side of the range, I like to change it a bit. I close the EURCHF position, which was not bad at all and like to increase the USDJPY position. Again I also like to move the stop lower in the EURHUF down to 295,00 now. The USDCAD position looks ok for now and I expect that currency pair to move in the next days. Usually we should see a lower USDCAD rate because of the higher stock market in the USA, so I still like that position.

Should there be any news out or should there be any huge position in the market, I will send out another newsletter, but for now the market is really dead and not many people are involved currently.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 99,35 (1@ 99,00 and 1@ 99,70)
Target:
Stop lvl: 100,50
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 99,70
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 1,2360
P/L (ytd): +180 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 289,00
Stop lvl: 295,00
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +580 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,0505
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2000 onces @ 1245,00
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD