Currency forecast, July 29th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 29th 2013
Currency forecast, July 29th 2013

 A very quiet start into the week. Only the YEN moved a bit with the EURJPY and USDJPY lower. As I don’t see USDJPY a lot lower from current levels, I closed that position and just kept the EURJPY position open.

EURUSD looks overbought to me and I expect a correction there within the next 48 hours, though of course not a big one, as the market is waiting for the NFP-number on Friday. If you like to play with short dated binary options, I would suggest to sell high strikes in the EURUSD, like 2wk 1,3400 strike and then close it on Thursday, when the market does not move until then or the EURUSD even moves lower.

The only big news came out of China. The government likes to proof how high the debts in the country are. It will need a certain time until we get a result, but should the result be negative, it could have a big influence on the economy and the stock market.

Regarding positions:

I closed the USDJPY position with a nice profit. I only like to keep the EURJPY position regarding the YEN, as I think the EURUSD is overbought and with the EURUSD, EURJPY will move lower too. Instead of the USDJPY position, I like to increase the EURUSD position and sell 1 more @ 1,3270, as I am quite sure that the EURUSD is overbought here at current levels.

Also EURHUF could be interesting soon, as we are again close the 300,00 level. I like to sell again around 299,90.

Good luck,

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Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3270 , USDCHF 0,9300 , EURCHF 1,2335 , USDJPY 97,95 , EURJPY 129,95 , EURHUF 297,80 , USDCAD 1,0270 , GOLD 1.326,00

EURUSD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130 and 1 @ 1,3270) Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,3270

P/L (ytd): -110 pips  

USDJPY

(Entry lvl): 

Current position: flat

Target: Stop

lvl: Last trade:

Bought 1 USDJPY @ 97,95 P/L (ytd): +1150 pips  

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 1 @ 130,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Sold 1 @ 130,90

P/L (ytd): +230 pips  

USDCHF  (Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 2 @ 0,9420

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 2 @ 0,9420

P/L (ytd): +440 pips  

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: P/L (ytd): +10 pips  

EURHUF

 (Entry lvl): Sell 2 @ 299,90

Current position:

flat Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips  

USDCAD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position:

flat Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2k onces @ 1316,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Sold 2k onces @ 1316,00 P/L

(ytd): +86.000 USD