Currency forecast, July 22nd 2013

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Currency forecast, July 22nd 2013
Currency forecast, July 22nd 2013

We still see a very quiet market with no important news out. That’s why we see a moderate rise of the risk on mode, which means a bit higher stocks and a rising EURUSD.

Though that can change very quickly too. One bad news out of Europe and the market will completely turn around.

As we have seen a flow driven move in Gold, I like to play that commodity a bit and go short Gold. There has been no reason at all for that rise and I expect to see a correction very soon. Also with a stronger USD (I still expect that to happen soon), the gold-price should decline.

Worldwide there has been only the news that Japan’s Abe won the elections and his party now could change huge things in that country, but the market reacted very relaxed on those news as the YEN has not moved at all. Though we need to carefully watch what his plans are and will be, especially about the plans of a weak or weaker YEN.

In Europe we still need to watch the situation in Italy, Greece and Portugal, as it is very quiet at the moment about those countries, but they are still fighting against the crises.

From the United States of America, we have to be careful of any new statement from the FED regarding any change in their easing policy.

So the main thing for now is to watch the market for any news which would give some indications of the next move and trade the small ranges for now with a small positions, if we should see a risk off move. (That’s my strategy for now)

**relatedarticle**

Good luck,   Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3164 , USDCHF 0,9390 , EURCHF 1,2360 , USDJPY 99,85 , EURJPY 131,50 , EURHUF 294,40 , USDCAD 1,0350 , GOLD 1.316,00

EURUSD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 1,3090 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130)

Target:

Stop lvl: 1,3200

Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,3130

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 1 @ 99,65

Target:

Stop lvl: 101,50

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +980 pips

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 1 @ 130,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Sold 1 @ 130,90

P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 2 @ 0,9420

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

Bought 2 @ 0,9420

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF (Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target: Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2k onces @ 1316,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Sold 2k onces @ 1316,00

P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD