Currency forecast, July 1st

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Currency forecast, July 1st
Currency forecast, July 1st

First of all I like to welcome Croatia to the European Union – just one sentence about it: It is the number 3 of the poorest countries now in the European Union. Only Romania and Bulgaria are worse, but I have to say that Croatia is too small that it could really hurt the Union.

Overall not much is going on in the market as people are on vacation and there is no big news out. That is why I think the market will consolidate for now and we see take profits in the USDJPY and probably in gold. That is why I closed the gold position @ 1.245,00. It was just a quick trade, as I heard that there were many buy-orders down there.

I also increased the USDCAD position to 2 lots. The reason here is that I heard about bigger stops in the market beginning at 1,0380. I think we will test that level sooner or later.

I took the stop for EURHUF down to 296,00 from 297,00 – I like to make at least another 100 pips out of that position in worst case. (Remember, the P/L only shows the earned pips without the profit from the higher interest rate).

EURCHF looks still fine to keep the long position – more and more people close their long CHF position as it looks like the crisis is more and more over. It looks like we will see a nice growth-rate next year.

Just a short note for all who are interested in soccer: Congratulation to Brazil, who won the ConfedCup against Spain in a great game.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Shot 1 @ 99,00
Target:
Stop lvl: 100,50
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 2 @ 1,2270
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,2090
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90
Target: 289,00
Stop lvl: 296,00
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +580 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,0505
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2000 onces @ 1245,00
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD