Currency forecast, July 18th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 18th 2013
Currency forecast, July 18th 2013

Ben Bernanke informed the market already 2 days before the planned Fed testimony. That should give the market some safety, which we could see as levels are again more or less unchanged in comparison to the last 48 hours. We only saw a moderate rise in the stock market.

Even though with the only small moves, EURUSD, USDCHF and Gold are on a good way. There is still the issue with Italy and also Greece could become interesting again, as they need to find a majority to fire about 15000 employees who work for the government. Shouldn’t they find the majority to be able to do that step, it would be a big question, if they receive the necessary money from the EU, IMF and ECB, not to become bankrupt.

I would also expect a quiet end of the week. That could be also the case for the whole next week. As I mentioned in my last forecast, we could see that quiet market for the rest of July.

Good luck,

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3104 , USDCHF 0,9435 , EURCHF 1,2365 , USDJPY 100,25 , EURJPY 131,35 , EURHUF 293,95 , USDCAD 1,0430 , GOLD 1.277,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,3090 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130)
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,3200
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,3130
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 99,65
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 130,90
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 130,90
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Long 2 @ 0,9420
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 0,9420
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD