Currency forecast, July 17th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 17th 2013
Currency forecast, July 17th 2013

Again another day without big news out and where we see a bit of a risk appetite. I am still not that sure about if this scenario will continue.

There is one story which needs to be watched – the downgrade of Italy and the Unicredit Bank (one of the biggest banks in Italy and a very big bank in Europe). Also, its daughter company Unicredit Bank Austria got downgraded and both banks have still a negative outlook. Should Italy become a second Greece, Portugal or Spain, then Europe would be in real trouble and we will see the next crisis, which would be even bigger than the old one.

Beside that story the market is really quiet, as we are in the middle of vacation time, but I would expect that by the middle of august the market could already look for the elections in Germany. Once we get there, there will be a lot to report daily and the market will react on any change in the daily surveys who will win the election.

As I think the next crisis in Europe will start sooner than later, I like to open a position plus increase the EURUSD position a bit. The new one will be to go short on the EURJPY and to go long on the USDCHF.

Good luck,

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3129 , USDCHF 0,9420 , EURCHF 1,2370 , USDJPY 99,70 , EURJPY 130,90 , EURHUF 293,50 , USDCAD 1,0400 , GOLD 1.286,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,3090 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130)
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,3200
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 1,3130
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 99,65
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 130,90
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 1 @ 130,90
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Long 2 @ 0,9420
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 0,9420
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD