Currency forecast, July 15th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 15th 2013
Currency forecast, July 15th 2013

The market seems to be dead today. Levels are the same where we closed on Friday. That’s the best market for those spot traders, who like to play tiny ranges (to take profit after 5 or 10 pips).

As the market outlook has not changed and I still think we will see a correction of Bernanke’s speech soon, I like to increase the position a bit and go short on Gold here at 1.288,00.

For the rest, I like to wait if maybe a better entry level (EURJPY, USDJPY, USDCHF).

The downgrade of France by the S&P was also not the big surprise as it was the last rating agency that did that step.

What could be more important but has had no influence yet to the markets was the downgrade of two big Italian banks. First a downgrade of Italy and now two Italian banks. Is something going on there? Should we see another downgrade of Italy, the Italian banks could get into real trouble, as they hold a huge amount of Italian bonds. That step could be the big market shaker. It definitely feels like that something will happen more sooner than later, which is bad for the EURO.

I will follow the market carefully and will keep you up to date about any new information about that.

Good luck,

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3055 , USDCHF 0,9480 , EURCHF 1,2385 , USDJPY 99,50 , EURJPY 129,90 , EURHUF 291,70 , USDCAD 1,0395 , GOLD 1.288,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 1,3050
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,3200
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 99,65
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 3 @ 0,9505
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD