Currency forecast, July 12th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 12th 2013
Currency forecast, July 12th 2013

So far it seems to be a very quiet end of a week. No big news out overnight and market trades at nearly unchanged levels.

There are two possibilities which could move the market again. First of all, if we see another downgrade of a European country or if there are new issues with Greece.

The second thing could be another speech of Bernanke that the end of the easing policy of the Fed is closer than everyone thinks. I think that will be the one we will see in the near future. What does that mean for the forex market?
It will lead to a stronger USD and you will mainly see that with EURUSD and USDCHF, plus of course Gold should move lower too. USDJPY will not move that much, as the higher interest rates would mean a loss in the stock market, which would send the EURJPY to lower levels too.

I don’t want to open a new position pre weekend and wait for the start of next week. I only like to keep the tiny EURUSD position for now, in case Bernanke would speak today – then it would be at least a small profit.

Just in case you like to know already, next week (at least it seems so for 95%), I will go short on the EURUSD, EURJPY and go long on the USDCHF, plus maybe a tiny short Gold position).

I wish you a nice weekend and good luck for today.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3065 , USDCHF 0,9485 , EURCHF 1,2395 , USDJPY 99,05 EURJPY 129,50 , EURHUF 292,10 , USDCAD 1,0365 , GOLD 1.278,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 1,3050
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,3200
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 99,65
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 3 @ 0,9505
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD