Currency forecast, July 11th 2013

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Currency forecast, July 11th 2013
Currency forecast, July 11th 2013

We have seen the expected move higher in the EURUSD, but the move was a bit bigger than expected. I would have thought we would only see it up to 1,3050-1,3100. I closed all the positions (especially the USDCHF one was great).

Why did we see that move? Well you could say that it was because of the FED, as they said that they would only change their policy if they see good numbers of the NFP-data.
In my opinion we saw that move because the market was long USD and two big banks moved the whole market to get those traders out of their position, so they took out all the stops on the upside. That’s why it is time again to be long on the USD. I only like to trade the EURUSD in a small size and wait maybe for a bit better levels.

The downgrade of Italy which is now only 2 steps away from having junk-bonds seems not to be that big news for the market. I say against the market that this is quite big news, because the outlook is still negative and should we see another downgrade, it could be really dangerous for the Eurozone.

As we have seen the predicted move, I see the EURUSD a lot lower over the next few weeks (I would say like 1,25-1,26). I think that was one of the last moves higher to take out all the stops. We will not see a move to 1,2600 in one shot, but we will see new lower lows and lower highs over the next few days.

If you like to have more positions than just the EURUSD, I would say you can go long on the USDCHF and maybe go short EURJPY, but I am not that convinced there. That’s why I would prefer to be only short on the EURUSD for now.

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3047 , USDCHF 0,9510 , EURCHF 1,2405 , USDJPY 99,05 EURJPY 129,25 , EURHUF 293,15 , USDCAD 1,0375 , GOLD 1.288,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 1,3050
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,3200
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 1 @ 99,65
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 98,65
P/L (ytd): +980 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 3 @ 0,9505
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Bought 2 @ 1,0370
P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD