Currency forecast, July 10th 2013

0
148
Currency forecast, July 10th 2013

Here it is the move I was waiting for. It seems it is the beginning of the correction of this risk on market we have seen for a while. As mentioned yesterday, it was the right thing to be short on the USDJPY and EURJPY. Only the EURCHF is a bit behind, but it will follow soon.

Currency forecast, July 10th 2013
Currency forecast, July 10th 2013

There were no big news in the world, but traders think more and more the same as I do and that is about all the problems we still have around the world. The downside risk especially in the USDJPY and EURJPY is much bigger than the upside. I would say the ratio for earning/loosing is like 3:1 if you are short on the USDJPY and EURJPY.

For the people who like to trade via charts: EURUSD broke the pivot level around 1,2770 – so a lot of big investment banks see now the EURUSD moving lower to 1,2000. I don’t see that in the next few weeks. I think more we will move lower towards 1,2700-1,2650 maybe, but we then we will see a quick rebound again above the 1,3000 level. So now we know the level, where I would go long on the EURUSD .

Should you be short on the USDJPY and/or EURJPY for now, I would sit on the position and wait for the next move lower.

What I like to add to my position is USDCHF to go short on the USDCHF at the current level (0,9705). The reason is I still think we will see EURCHF at lower levels plus we will also see a rebound of EURUSD soon too. That is more a long term position (I will not close it within the next days).

Good luck.

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view

Current spot: EURUSD 1,2800 , USDCHF 0,9705 , EURCHF 1,2425 , USDJPY 100,55 EURJPY 128,70 , EURHUF 292,90 , USDCAD 1,0515 , GOLD 1.253,50

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 99,65 (1@ 99,00 and 1@ 99,70 and 1 @ 100,25)
Target:
Stop lvl: 101,50
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +780 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 0,9705
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -240 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0490
Target:
Stop lvl: 1,0610
Last trade:
P/L (ytd):

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD