Currency Forecast, December 2nd 2013

0
158
Currency Forecast, December 2nd 2013
Currency Forecast, December 2nd 2013

Currency Forecast, December 2nd 2013

Markets are still trading in a tight range, with the EURUSD stuck at 1,3600. Also, the EURJPY and USDJPY have not moved at all in the last 24 trading hours.

This week’s focus will be on the NFP (Nonfarm payrolls number) of the USA, which will be released Friday afternoon. A good number could give a sign regarding an end or at least an earlier than expected end of the FED’s easing policy, while a bad number would show the opposite.

EURHUF is trading at around 301,00 currently which is fine, as it should hold here and a move back towards 297,00 at least is more than likely within this week. We have seen a range of 292,00-302,00 for the whole year and I don’t expect that this range will be broken soon.

USDCAD made a quite impressive move higher to 1,0620 and I like to use that opportunity to sell some here. When I compare the CAD to the AUD, which are both commodity currencies, then I see that the AUD is overvalued or the CAD undervalued and I think more about the second idea. The gold price and especially the oil price has not declined that much that it would answer why the CAD is currently trading that weak. It should trade around 1,0500 at least again quite soon.

Of course we have to keep in mind that Xmas and New Year is coming closer and closer which means liquidity will disappear more and more, which could lead to market moves which could be seen without any reason – just for stops hunting.

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3605 , USDCHF 0,9050 , EURCHF 1,2310 , USDJPY 102,40 , EURJPY 139,35 , EURHUF 301,40 , USDCAD 1,0620 , GOLD 1.246,00

EURUSD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 100,18
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +2240 pips

EURJPY
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 134,90
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +1078 pips

USDCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Flat
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +741 pips

EURHUF
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 3 @ 300,00
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +2540 pips

USDCAD
(Entry lvl):
Current position: Short 2 @ 1,0620
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade: Sold 2 @ 1,0620
P/L (ytd): +500 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)
(Entry lvl):
Current position: long 1k @ 1.245,00
Target:
Stop lvl:
Last trade:
P/L (ytd): +258.000 USD

To contact the reporter of this story: Marco Roemer at marco@forexminute.com