Currency forecast, August 8th 2013

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Currency forecast, August 8th 2013
Currency forecast, August 8th 2013

Currency forecast, August 8th 2013

Well that move in the EURUSD is a bit surprising. Usually I would close and stop the positions, BUT in this case something is wrong. The EURUSD move doesn’t match to the other currency pairs. EURJPY moved lower for example, so this whole move looks like stop hunting to me. I even buy one more USDCHF as I am really sure that this move is completely wrong.

The USA is in much better condition than Europe and the Italian government is still very dangerous for the whole crisis in Europe, as they could resign at any time and I know that they really stay behind Berlusconi. Also, the USA will take out some liquidity off the market soon, as they don’t want to create the next big bubble. Then we have the German elections soon, which will cause some troubles too, as it looks like there will be no majority – only a coalition between the two major parties which is very unlikely that this really will happen.

I think we have seen the top now in the EURUSD (maybe we see a final move towards the 1,3400 level) and the USD will strengthen very soon again.

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3360 , USDCHF 0,9260 , EURCHF 1,2285 , USDJPY 96,25 , EURJPY 128,60 , EURHUF 299,15 , USDCAD 1,0405 , GOLD 1.292,90

EURUSD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130 and 1 @ 1,3270) Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: long 2 @ 97,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 2 @ 97,00

P/L (ytd): +1150 pips

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 1 @ 128,90

P/L (ytd): +430 pips

USDCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 1 @ 0,9260

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2k onces @ 1316,00

Target: 1270,00

Stop lvl: 1300,00

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD