Currency forecast, August 7th 2013

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Currency forecast, August 7th 2013
Currency forecast, August 7th 2013

Currency forecast, August 7th 2013

YEN was the big mover overnight with the EURJPY trading below 129,00 and USDJPY trading below 97,00. As I would expect a correction there (especially in the USDJPY), I closed the EURJPY position and took profit on it plus also went long a bit on the USDJPY.

The reason is traders underestimate the possible crisis out of Italy, should the coalition resign. That would lead to new elections and elections in Italy always seem to last quite long, especially to form a coalition after the elections. Because of that, I think the real value of the EURO versus the USD should be around 1,3000 or even lower and not around the current levels. As the BOJ likes a weak YEN, I would only see the EURUSD lower without the EURJPY moving that much and the USDJPY again above 98,00 very soon.

Also, gold comes closer to the level where I like to close the open position, as if there are those news out of Italy, the gold price could move higher very fast. For this reason I like to put in a stop profit level (order) and would close the position, should we trade above 1300,00 at any time.

EURHUF is still in a green area and we must not forget that with every day we have this position we earn money out of the swap (the difference from the higher interest rate in Hungary – this P/L is not included in the table below).

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3295 , USDCHF 0,9265 , EURCHF 1,2320 , USDJPY 96,95 , EURJPY 128,90 , EURHUF 299,35 , USDCAD 1,0385 , GOLD 1.282,00

EURUSD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130 and 1 @ 1,3270)

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: long 2 @ 97,00

Target: Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 2 @ 97,00 P/L (ytd): +1150 pips

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target: Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 1 @ 128,90 P/L (ytd): +430 pips

USDCHF  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 2 @ 0,9420

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2k onces @ 1316,00

Target: 1270,00

Stop lvl: 1300,00

Last trade: P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD