Currency forecast, August 5th 2013

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Currency forecast, August 5th 2013
Currency forecast, August 5th 2013

Currency forecast, August 5th 2013

A pretty quiet start into the week, though there is a story we all need to focus on. It is about Italy and Berlusconi. As he got judged to stay at home, maybe for the next 4 years, his party members said that they would quit the government coalition if the judge stays how it is.

An end of the Italian government would lead to a bigger risk off move (lower EURUSD, EURJPY, …) as we have seen how difficult it is to form a coalition in Italy after the elections.

That’s why I am still happy with the EURUSD position and I will keep it for now, as long as this story is on the table. If you prefer to play this scenario with binary options, I would suggest to sell a 1 month or 2 months 1,3350 or 1,3400 strike and to close it then when we see a spot level of 1,3020-1,3050.

The time also runs in your favor, as the more days pass by the cheaper the option will be to buy it back then.

EURHUF also seems like we have seen the high again and it looks like it is on the way lower again. This currency pair could be the best range trading currency pair for this year, as the market always buys around 290,00 but the Hungarian government doesn’t want the EURHUF above 300,00.

Gold also looks much too high for me, as interest rates in the USA could rise earlier than expected and with a lower EURUSD, which I expect to see, Gold should decline too.

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3270 , USDCHF 0,9295 , EURCHF 1,2330 , USDJPY 98,40 , EURJPY 130,60 , EURHUF 298,35 , USDCAD 1,0390 , GOLD 1.313,70

EURUSD

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150 (1@ 1,3050 and 1 @ 1,3130 and 1 @ 1,3270) Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1150 pips

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 1 @ 130,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +230 pips

USDCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 2 @ 0,9420

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2k onces @ 1316,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +86.000 USD