Currency forecast, August 13th 2013

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Currency forecast, August 13th 2013
Currency forecast, August 13th 2013

Currency forecast, August 13th 2013

There is the expected move in the USDJPY with spot trading close to the 98,00 level. As the economy slows down in China and also Japan, I would expect to see the USDJPY around 99,00 soon, so I will keep the long USDJPY position, though I will set a stop profit level at 97,50 once we see spot trading above 98,00.

I expect the USD to trade stronger too against the world currencies within the next few days, so I think it is the right position to be long on the USD for now. The market shows signs that this will happen as traders buy more and more downside strikes in the EURUSD and the Risk Reversal (that’s the price you currently have to pay more for a downside strike than for an upside strike) moved higher too, so traders are a bit afraid of a lower EURUSD exchange rate and they think a move lower is more than likely.

Gold came back a bit and traded again above 1330,00, but it’s ok for now and the gold price should decline soon with a lower EURUSD exchange rate. Gold is also nice to play via a binary option as the volatility is quite high, but I don’t expect that it moves a lot in the next few days and if, then we see it lower. That’s why I would sell a 2wk 1400,00 or a 3wk 1400,00 option and would sit on it at least for a few days and then close it.

EURHUF recovered a bit too, though we are still in the money with the position and a move towards the 292,00-293,00 level is just a question of time. And don’t forget, every day you hold a long HUF position, you earn money because of the carry (higher interest rate in Hungary than in Europe).

Let’s wait for the end of this week and I will decide next week then about the current positions as tomorrow is a holiday in my country (though I follow the market of course).

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3290 , USDCHF 0,9275 , EURCHF 1,2335 , USDJPY 97,70 , EURJPY 129,85 , EURHUF 298,50 , USDCAD 1,0315 , GOLD 1.337,00

EURUSD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: long 2 @ 97,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: P/L (ytd): +1150 pips

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +430 pips

USDCHF  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90

Target: Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: short 2k ounces @ 1330,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +118.000 USD