Currency Forecast, August 12th 2013

0
173
Currency Forecast, August 12th 2013
Currency Forecast, August 12th 2013

Currency Forecast, August 12th 2013

Not a lot going on, though it looks like I was right on Friday when I mentioned that it looks like we have seen the high of the range close to the 1,3400 level.

Gold is the big surprise with the move higher, when the EURUSD moved lower, so I went short again at 1330,00 and would expect to see a level below 1300,00 soon.

EURUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY are on its way and as we get closer to end of August, where the market usually starts moving again, I would expect a further risk off move before that, as market participants will expect a first bigger risk off move once the traders are back.

EURHUF is also on its way lower, though we need to see some more big figures there. Once we trade there below 294,00 I will set up a stop profit level at 297,00.

Regarding any news, there is not much going on. Only Chinese inflation data was disappointing so a slowdown of the Chinese economy is more and more likely. This would of course hit the European economy too, as a lot of European countries export their goods to China.

Also Dalthine from the Swiss National bank mentioned again that they will defend the 1,2000 level against the EURO whatever will happen, so that could give the EURCHF a bit of a push higher, which would be also good for a higher USDCHF exchange rate.

Good luck,

**relatedarticle**

Current trades, positions and levels:

For info how the model works: The P/L is always calculated with the size of 1. So if the position is 1 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +100 pips. If the position is 2 and it makes a profit of 100 pips, the P/L would be +200 pips of course – it is always calculated with the position size of 1. The position could go up to 3, in case the system has a strong view.

Current spot: EURUSD 1,3320 , USDCHF 0,9240 , EURCHF 1,2310 , USDJPY 96,65 , EURJPY 128,80 , EURHUF 296,80 , USDCAD 1,0300 , GOLD 1.330,00

EURUSD  

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 3 @ 1,3150

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): -110 pips

USDJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: long 2 @ 97,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 2 @ 97,00

P/L (ytd): +1150 pips

EURJPY

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Bought 1 @ 128,90

P/L (ytd): +430 pips

USDCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Long 3 @ 0,9366

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +440 pips

EURCHF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +10 pips

EURHUF

(Entry lvl):

Current position: Short 2 @ 299,90

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +1560 pips

USDCAD

(Entry lvl):

Current position: flat

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade:

P/L (ytd): +240 pips

XAUUSD (Gold)

(Entry lvl):

Current position: short 2k ounces @ 1330,00

Target:

Stop lvl:

Last trade: Sold 2k ounces @ 1330,00

P/L (ytd): +118.000 USD