BTCUSD price still seems to be stuck in consolidation, unable to budge out of the symmetrical triangle pattern on its 4-hour pattern. Bulls and bears still haven’t decided on which direction to take bitcoin price, possibly sitting on their hands until a major market catalyst shows up.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, which means that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, a break lower could be of higher probability compared to an upside breakout. However, it’s also worth noting that the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so an upward crossover and return in bullish pressure could be possible.
Moving on to the oscillators, stochastic is heading south from the overbought zone, indicating that sellers are taking control of BTCUSD price action. A break below the triangle support could take bitcoin down to the next support at $560 then onto the triangle lows near $540. RSI is on the move up but appears to be turning lower, hinting at a selloff in the short term. For now, the 100 SMA is holding as a dynamic resistance level and might be enough to keep gains in check.
Data from the US has been stronger than expected so far this week, keeping Fed rate expectations in play for the next few weeks or months. This could renew dollar gains against its counterparts as traders seek higher returns.
In addition, the prospect of higher borrowing costs could weigh on business and consumer activity, which might also drag commodity prices down. This should limit risk-taking activity and discourage traders from putting funds in riskier holdings like bitcoin. Still, the prospect of additional easing from the likes of the BOJ and ECB might lead investors to move some money into alternative assets.