BTCUSD price recently made an upside break from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating its intention to go further north. However, buyers seem to have lost steam and might need a quick pullback before establishing a stronger uptrend.
Using the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken triangle resistance around $410. A larger pullback to the 61.8% Fib at the $400 level might be possible, although price already seems to be drawing support at the 38.2% level at the moment.
Stochastic is already near the oversold area and turning higher could draw more buyers to the mix. RSI is still on the way down but is also nearing the oversold levels. The 100 SMA recently crossed above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside and that further gains are likely.
Dollar strength came back in play yesterday when the slump in oil prices renewed risk aversion. Big oil producers Iran and Saudi Arabia remained reluctant to trim production levels, with the former calling the output freeze plan ridiculous and laughable.
Meanwhile, data from the US economy came in mixed, as the CB leading index showed a sharper drop in optimism while existing home sales beat expectations. New home sales and crude oil inventories data are due today, with the latter expected to show a rise of 2.1 million barrels in stockpiles.
The API report indicated a buildup of 7.1 million barrels in crude oil supply so another higher than expected reading from the EIA could mean more commodity declines and a BTCUSD selloff. On the other hand, a lower than expected gain could ease fears of a supply glut and lead to a BTCUSD bounce on risk appetite.
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